The Big “But”: Sage has not yet made the jump to the 100-mile distance and that could sway some few voters.
Odds of winning: 8-1
The Big “But”: In head-to-head races with the other UROY contenders, Ian lags a bit behind.
Odds of winning: 6-1
Tim won Western States with a scorching time on a truly scorching day. Were it not for his course record run in benign conditions last year, his 2013 WS alone might have, in the past, propelled him to being a shoo-in for UROY. But alas, it is likely to be much tighter this year even with his “second season” of racing in which he traveled around, beating a variety of different fields on a wide range of courses.
The Big “But”: Even with his incredible run at WS, Tim’s resume lacks that big “wow” race that often sways voters.
Odds of winning: 4-1
The Big “But”: Rob did not win Western States. While that may seem nitpicky given the resume listed above, it will matter to some voters as head-to-head comparisons are important.
Odds of winning: 3-1
Indeed, there are still a few months left and I know some of these guys may still have some racing left in their legs. But, in my opinion, it’s not too early to begin speculating, so, let’s have at it! Who’s gonna take it?
PS. I will have a similar look at the Female Ultrarunner of the Year contenders in my October 18th column.
* Editor’s Note: AJW is discussing ultrarunner of the year candidates who reside in North America. Obviously, other runners would warrant consideration if the geographic scope of consideration where larger.
AJW’s Beer of the Week
Call for Comments (from Bryon)
- Which of the guys above do you think has the current edge for the North American ultrarunner of the year title? Who’ll get it in the end?
- If you were to add a fifth (and sixth?) runner for serious consideration, who would it be and why?
- If we expand the scope of consideration to the rest of the world, Kilian Jornet is obviously a strong contender. However, who else outside of North America would be in the running for global men’s ultrarunner of the year?