2018 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

Western States 100 logo[Editor’s Note – July 3rd: Due to its age, an error has popped up in program that compiles the prediction contest results. We hope to sort this out soon and provide the prediction contest results.]

Welcome to iRunFar’s tenth (!?!) annual Western States 100 prediction contest! Drymax, Jaybird, Buff, AltraJulbo, and CamelBak along with artist Maggie Tides have all contributed great prizes. As in the past few years, we’ll have both merit-based winners as well as a random winner, so give this contest an honest go and you could end up bringing home some great gear!

Read on to learn how this contest works, to see what you can win, and to enter the contest.

The Basics*

Drymax - 2017 Western States 100The rules are the same as they’ve been the previous nine years. You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your 10 scoring runners (5 men and 5 women).

Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Ian Sharman for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick Sharman to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Drymax iRunFar Sock

The Drymax iRunFar Sock!

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tiebreaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

Please note that the entrants list used is as of 9:10 p.m. PDT on June 12th. While there will be changes to the entrants list before race day with the new waitlist system, we’re all on a level playing field picking from the same list.

The contest will close at 6 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 20. That’ll give me time to, once again, analyze all your picks for a group analysis prior to the race.

To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of the live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race! On race day, we’ll also have a live-coverage page with additional insight and commentary as well as an open discussion.

The Prizes

Merit Prizes
We’ve got such an awesome assortment of prizes that we’re going to launch right into what each of the three merit-based prize winners will receive.

    • First Place
    • Second Place
      • From Drymax: 4 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing;
      • From Jaybird: The winner’s choice of the Freedom 2 or Run wireless headphones;
      • From Buff®: A soon-to-launch iRunFar BUFF® Original Multifunctional Headwear;
        From Altra:
         The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;
      • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
      • From CamelBak: The choice of any CamelBak running pack.
  • Third Place
    • From Drymax: 2 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing;Julbo Logo
    • From Jaybird: The winner’s choice of the Freedom 2 or Run wireless headphones;
    • From Buff®: A soon-to-launch iRunFar BUFF® Original Multifunctional Headwear;
    • From Altra: The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From CamelBak: The choice of any CamelBak running pack.

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they bested more than 1,100 other entrants. Nice work folks! 1st: iRunFar’s Kristin Zosel, 2nd: Harris Brenner, 3rd: Nathan Cornelius. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.

Maggie Tides - Western States Trail Triptych

Maggie Tides Western States Trail triptych.

Random Prize
This year, we’re awarding one random grand prize randomly to one lucky entrant who gives the contest an honest attempt.

  • Grand Prize Random Winner: Same pack as the overall winner (minus the art)!
    • From Drymax: 6 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing;
    • From Jaybird: The winner’s choice of the Freedom 2 or Run wireless headphones;
    • From Buff®: A soon-to-launch iRunFar BUFF® Original Multifunctional Headwear;
      From Altra:
       The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From CamelBak: The choice of any CamelBak running pack.

The Contest

You may want to check out our regularly updated men’s and women’s previews before you make your picks. Make sure your favorites are actually running!

[This year’s prediction contest is now closed.]

*The Details
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks–please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Maeghan Laws to place overall and win the women’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business; we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own… we’d recommend it as some top entrants usually end up missing the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

  • Here at iRunFar, we’ve published our women’s and men’s previews and will be publishing a slew of interviews in the coming days. We update the previews whenever we receive new information about athletes. (In other words, stay tuned!)

The Closing

If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

If you enjoy what iRunFar provides, consider becoming a fan of iRunFar on Facebook or subscribing by the methods noted above.

[Editor’s Note: Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for building the backbone for our prediction contests. There would be no contest without him. Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of long ago. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

There are 31 comments

  1. Graeme

    3 of my top 5 finishers (in no particular order):
    Francois D’haene
    Jim Walmsley
    Jeff Browning
    Coincidentally, they represent different shoe manufacturers…but I have picked their teammates. Looking forward to the battle of brands as well.

  2. David

    Top three men:

    Francois D’haene
    Jared Hazen
    JimWalmsley

    In the top ten somewhere:

    Ian Sharman
    Jeff Browning
    Jesse Haynes

    Top woman:

    Courtney Dauwalter

    Still working on the rest.

  3. Troy Windsor

    Two years in a row I have hit 40 points, hoping to improve on that. Once again I am picking Walmsley to win, going with Courtney on the women’s side.

  4. David Brown

    With Camille Herron out I need to change my predictions. Unfortunately I didn’t make a copy of my list. Wondering if you could send it back to me so changes can be made. Sorry for the inconvenience.

  5. Charlie Potts

    Love this contest! Is there any interest in providing a confirmation email with our picks to us once they’re submitted? Maybe something for next year. Thanks for all that you do, very excited for the pre-show with Dylan Bowman!

  6. Iona

    Made my picks. This competition is always fun. Here’s hoping I halt my declining form from the last two years. And score less than my wife.

  7. Alex

    Hi guys,

    Would you be able to email my picks to me? I think I picked Camille, so would love the chance to revise this, if that’s allowed.

    Thanks,
    Alex

    1. Bryon Powell

      Hey Alex,
      You can repick. Just use the same name and email address. Afraid I’m on a phone on a plane on the way to California and with my schedule over the next day, won’t be able to email your picks before the contest ends. Sorry.

  8. Jackie Lai

    Jared Hazen, I was going to pick you for the top 3! Sorry to hear that you are out, glad I read that before making my picks. Looking forward to following along on Saturday, thanks iRunFar!!!!

  9. Aaron Davis

    Wamsley, Mendoza, and Francois hitting the podium for the men.

    Dauwalter, Basham, and Lickteig for the women.

    I think Walmsley will get the course record but not go sub 14. Lickteig is going to be fun to follow. I hope she comes back with a vengeance. I want her to win, but Courtney is going to be tough to beat.

  10. Jeffrey Addy

    Jim wins …. paces himself …Zach Bitters 2nd
    Jeff Browning breaks Masters record
    Kaci podiums…. the beast babe is back
    Courtney wins

    Hope all the runners finish
    Jeff

  11. Michael Vetter

    Soo, just today I find out that Hazen and Herron are out! I know it’s the 9th hour, but I would have changed my line up this morning if this were the case!
    If not I guess there is always next year!

  12. Erik

    Bummer, was really looking forward to watching Hazen and Walmsley feed off each other for a 1, 2 finish (also reflected in my picks which appears to be too late to swap out Hazen). Wishing a good run for all who toe the line!

  13. Bobby O

    Bruh.. Like I was waiting for this. For so long For tonight. I got in the right headpsace and errythang. My god. I still got love for the #irf. But like. Damn. I had serious money riding on tonight. Talking waaaay more than endorsements.

    I’m making this the most underground betting game known to man.

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