2010 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

Welcome to iRunFar’s second annual Western States 100 prediction contest! Last year’s contest was so much fun that we had to bring it back for another year. To add to the excitement, Montrail and Mountain Hardwear are once again supporting the contest with some great prize packages going to the top three prognosticators! Read on to learn how this contest works, to see what you can win, and to enter the contest.

The Basics*
You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. You’re goal is to have the fewest total points among your ten scoring runners.

Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick my pacee, Andy Jones-Wilkins, for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick AJW to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tie-breaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

While anyone can enter the prediction contest, the Montrail/Mountain Hardwear prizes will only be awarded to folks with US or Canadian mailing addresses. That said, we’ll do our best to reward any winners from further abroad.

The contest will close at 3 a.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 23 – exactly one week after it opens. That’ll give me time to print all your picks and bring them with me up to the big dance. I’ll be up there for five days providing the best coverage I can.

To follow all the Western States action, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive any live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race!

The Prizes
As noted above, Montrail and Mountain Hardwear are once again providing great products to give away. To start, all three winners will receive Montrail’s new Sabino Trail shoe. (iRunFar Montrail Sabino Trail review) First and second place will also receive their choice of one Mountain Hardwear’s Refueler short models (men) or a MH Pace(r) short or skort model. In addition, the grand prize winner will take home a shirt from Mountain Hardwear’s Wicked Lite performance line. Third place will win a Montrail hat to sport along with their pair of Sabino Trail.

For those of you who like bullet points, here goes:

  • First Place – Montrail Sabino Trail, Mountain Hardwear Refueler/Pace(r) bottom, Mountain Hardwear Wicked Lite performance shirt
  • Second Place – Montrail Sabino Trail, Mountain Hardwear Refueler/Pace(r) bottom
  • Third Place – Montrail Sabino Trail, Montrail Hat

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they topped nearly 200 entries. Nice work guys! 1st: John McAllister, 2nd: Evan Cestari; T-3rd: John Medinger & Andy Holak. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.
The Contest

The contest is now closed.

*The Details
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks – please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like AJW to place overall and win the men’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business – we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints [Last Updated 6/18 @ 11 a.m. PDT]
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, to make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own…. we’d recommend it as some top entrants will not be running the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

The Closing
If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

If you enjoy what iRunFar provides, consider becoming a fan of iRunFar on Facebook or subscribing by the methods noted above.

[Trail Goat Notes: Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for once again being the brains and brawn behind this contest. There would be no contest without him.

Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of yore. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

Bryon Powell: is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of iRunFar.com. Having spent nearly 20 years as an ultrarunner and three decades as a trail runner, he's also written Relentless Forward Progress: A Guide to Running Ultramarathons and co-wrote Where the Road Ends: A Guide to Trail Running. He calls Silverton, Colorado and Moab, Utah home.

View Comments (27)

  • I believe Anita Ortiz is injured and won't be running this year. Don't quote me on that, but I believe that is the case.

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    • Consider that confirmed, Craig.

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  • Good initiative. Is that restricted to the US/Canada? Or can the whole World participate?

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    • JB, nice catch... and, unfortunately, the Montrail/Mountain Hardwear prizes will only be shipped to the US or Canada. That said, we'll do our best to reward any winners from further abroad.

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  • Anita was expecting to run in a recent interview on Endurance Planet. Is she now out?

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    • She's out. Blew out her ACL in a recent trail race (I think) and needs surgery.

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  • Dang, I missed the deadline ;-(

    My pick is Tony Krupicka...he is gonna kill it this year!

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    • ...or not (that's what happens when you are working on agendas all day)!

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  • Stupid question, but what age are you calling Masters? 50+?

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    • Heather, masters is 40+.

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  • Fun stuff. Thanks for doing this again.

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    • Glad you enjoy it, Craig. Have you developed a WS prediction algorithm yet?

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  • No, remember I sucked last year. I was good with the women, but the men had too many wildcards. Seems like you gotta go with folks who you think have a higher percentage of finishing since the DNFs and DNSs are big points in the wrong direction? I don't know.

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    • Oh yeah, you did stink up the joint! It's true that one might fair better picking some from the "they're not gonna win, but they'll finish and finish well." I've got a few names in mind, but I gotta keep my cards close to my chest.

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  • So clearly some of the top 10 (open) will be 40+. What are you asking for in the slot - the overall masters winner prediction? Sorry to be so thick...

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    • Yup. Whether the men's and women's masters winners finish first or fifteenth in their gender your picks for those categories will used as tie-breakers after scoring the open categories.

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  • Watch out for Borkur from Iceland....if he manages to drop some pounds this year then like his Volcano...he will be smokin'

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  • this off of AJW's blog:

    "After last year's international explosion in the top-5, I have recently learned that both Jez Bragg and Tsuyoshi Kaburaki will not be starting the race this year."

    can i change him in my picks without re-doing the whole thing? i dont remember who/what i put down.

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    • I'm the one who confirmed to AJW that Tsuyoshi is out. :-)

      Unfortunately, one can't edit his or her picks. However, since you were kind enough to include your email, I'll pass yours along.

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      • thanks

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  • Took me a while but I finally got it in. Not so sure about my choices but we'll see. Put in an east coast pick on both sides with Koerner and Crosby-Helms taking the overall titles. That was way tough though and putting Anton outside of 1st was tough decision to make that I think I'll regret...

    Thanks Bryon for putting this together! Pretty fun to try to get a bit more into things and try to figure out more then just the top spot or 3.

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  • runners world is saying that bev anderson-abbs is not going to be racing.

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    • Yup. That's true.

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      • Darn! I had her in my top 8. Any chance I can swap her out for Becky Wheeler?

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        • Sorry, picks are final at this point!

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  • Is there a runner list with age listing? I can't find it.

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