2009 Western States 100 Prediction Contest Results

Western States Endurance RunWe didn’t want a week to go by between the 2009 Western States Endurance Run and the announcement of the winners of the Western States Prediction Contest. That meant a combination of good coding by Mitchell Goodman of the Ultra Good blog and some good old fashioned number crunching by Bryon Powell. As Bryon was manually ringing up the numbers (and to save the embarrassment of some contest participants) we’re only posting the results of those who accumulated 50 or fewer points. (For a refresher on the rules, check out the contest entry page.) Read on to find out who won the contest, what they win, and who did the best at picking the men’s and women’s fields separately. [If you notice an error in our arithmetic, please let us know!]

The Winners
MontrailMountain HardwearNo more waiting… except to thank Montrail and Mountain Hardwear for providing the great prizes for the contest. Without them, the only thing to come out of the contest would be bragging rights! On to the winners!

  1. John McAlister (16 points) wins a pair of Montrail Mountain Masochist trail shoes, a Mountain Hardwear’s Refueler short models (men) or a MH Pace(r) short or skort model, and Mountain Hardwear mountain performance shirt.
  2. Evan Cestari (17 points) also wins a pair of Mountain Masochists as well as his choice of a Mountain Hardwear performance bottom noted above.
  3. Andy Holak (20 points and 2 tie break points) wins a pair of Mountain Masochists and a Montrail hat.

Fortunately, Andy’s tie-break picks of AJW and Anita Ortiz put him ahead of John Medinger (also 20 points, but with less successful masters picks), lest we have to wrestle with the issue of awarding a prize to a WSER board member. That said, it’s pretty cool that Tropical John knows his race so well!

The Overall Contest Field
Below are all 46 individuals who scored 50 or fewer points.

[Trail Goat Note: For the record, I ended up with 53 points – 45 for men and 8 for women with 1 tie-break point.]

Men’s Predictions
No one picked the men’s field better than Jeannie Sullivan, Kevin Sullivan’s (5th place man) wife! Although she picked Jurek and Mackey for first and second, she went on to pick the following men to total a mere 9 points: 3. Koerner (2 pts); 4. Halekas (0 pts), 5. Cooper (14 pts, but not scored as Jeannie had 5 better predictions), 6. Jones-Wilkins (4 pts), 7. Schmitt (0 pts), 8. Sullivan (3 pts). Given the craziness of this year’s men’s race, we’re awfully impressed with Jeanie’s picks.

Women’s Predictions
The women’s race appears to have been much more predictable. So much so that there was a 9-way tie for the best predictions for the women’s field. The following picksters all totaled an incredible 4 points: Steve Itano, Mike Chastain, Craig Thronley, Chris Roman, Greg Bomhoff, Evan Cestari, Amanda Stickel, Suzanne Carrier, and Jon Allen. Way to know your ladies!

Final Words
Thanks to the nearly 200 individuals who took part in the contest. We had a lot of fun bringing the contest to you and hope you had a lot of fun participating. We hope to bring you more fun contests in the future.

There are 12 comments

  1. Paul Charteris

    From a statistical point of view, it will be interesting to see if the predictions are more accurate in 2010 given we will have the full benefit of this years race results (i.e. no two-year gap). Also, for us West Coasters, those East Coast and International runners are now less anonymous to us and will likely receive more votes. Great contest Bryon – enjoy your lack of O2 in Silverton. Cheers, PC

  2. Bryon Powell

    Glad you enjoyed the contest, Paul. I think the lack of a gap (fingers crossed that there won't be one) will help with the predictions. However, there will always likely be new comers. What will be interesting will be to see if folks take a closer look at East Coast or international runners who enter… I somehow doubt it.The lack of air is getting me up here… that's why I really hope folks check my math! ;-)

  3. Evan

    Likely the only time I'll see my name above the likes of Andy Holak, Geoff Roes, AJW, Michael Wardian, etc. :)Thanks for the great contest. It made following this year's WS even more fun and inspiring for my own training.

  4. Sophie Speidel

    Thanks for doing this, Goat…I had fun and despite my poor showing in the mens race I was pleased that I held my own with the ladies. :-)Also, thanks for your voice mail. I wish I had heard you call as I would have loved to have caught up but I appreciate your calling and all your efforts! Keep me posted…

  5. John

    hey, I'm not complaining about 4th place here, but. . . Kaburagi was first masters not AJW. His 16:52 is a new masters course record, beating Twiet's 17:17. Fun contest – can we do the same for HRH?aloha, TJ

  6. Bryon Powell

    Evan, You also beat many a big name who didn't break the 50 point barrier. Well done! Glad you enjoyed the contest.Sophie, you did quite respectably given the number of entrants. Re Project Refreshment, I've found a new opportunity in the next few weeks. Know that I'm doing my best and picking a good moment rather than any old moment. Timing is key. :-)TJ, Where did I put AJW as the masters winner? I'm well aware that he was third male master… in fact, I picked Tsuyoshi for the masters win! All points, including masters points are based on the difference between predicted place and actual place within a category. For instance, picks of AJW and Anita would result in 2 points for men and 0 points for women masters. Hence, Andy having 2 total masters points. If I did mess that up somewhere, please point it out. As I explained, I did there was some non-computer based calculating going on.Glad you enjoyed the contest, I'll make a plea with the programmer to see if we can get HRH up. You headed to Silverton? I'll never forget running into Chapman, handing you my WS buckle, and going out to pace McManus! :-)Ps. I hope you know I was just having fun writing re about you in the post… had you been top 3, you surely would have received you due booty. Thanks for putting on another wonderful WS!

  7. Johnny

    Thanks for hosting the contest. And also for all the Western States coverage. I'm enjoying the site. John McAlister

  8. Danni

    That was really fun. Though I was worried that I cursed Jurek by knowing somehow that he wouldn't finish. Little did I realize I wouldn't either. Oh well :p

  9. Bryon Powell

    Danni, No worries about dropping out. I just bagged l'annecime half way through. Gonna keep myself together for some runs in Canada in a few weeks.

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