2016 Hardrock 100 Lottery Results

Hardrock 100First of all, congratulations to all of you chosen for the 2016 Hardrock Hundred Endurance Run. With this year’s race proceeding in the perceived-to-be faster, clockwise direction, lottery entrants were up to 1,549 over last year’s lottery which had 1,367 applicants. All of these tickets (6,587 total) for 152 coveted slots for the privilege of running, hiking, and being supported on one of the most beautiful mountain courses in the world.

Prior to the lottery, the run administration placed all of the lottery applicants in divisions based upon their previous experience (or not) with Hardrock and separate lotteries took place within each of the divisions. The divisions are ‘First-Timers’ from which 47 spots in the run were given, ‘Veterans’ from which 35 spaces were given, and ‘Everyone Else’ from which 70 spaces were given.

Even though this event is called a run and not a race, the front end continues to grow in competitive nature while still seeming to maintain the cooperative family spirit which Hardrock prides itself upon. Below we document the men and women who were selected in the lottery today who we think will be the main 2016 contenders. We also mention who is on a waitlist and might get in and who is on a waitlist so far down they probably won’t get in.

Last year the waitlists went 9 deep (13 in 2014) in the ‘Never’ category. In the ‘Else’ lottery the waitlist went 12 deep (16 in 2014), and in the ‘Veteran’ category the entire waitlist of 8 runners will likely get into the race. A special thank you to Rob Erskine who provided this information through his blog.

The competition on the men’s side most certainly features two-time returning champion Kilian Jornet who is likely returning to better his clockwise direction course record from 2014 of 22:41:33. While he is largely considered unbeatable on this mountain course boasting some 33,000 feet of ascent, he will be challenged by Xavier Thévenard who has two Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc titles and could provide the most considerable challenge to Jornet yet. Throw in Jason Schlarb who has been incredibly consistent over the past two years in long, technical mountain races, and that should be an exciting race to watch. Nick Clark took a bit of a sabbatical last year, but he has the experience and skills to also make the podium at Hardrock. Who knows what we will see out of Timothy Olson, who has been pining to return for revenge on this course ever since his gutsy finish after an epic blow-up in 2014. Jeff Browning is always consistent in long mountain races. Additionally, cagey returnees such as Troy Howard, Scott Jaime, and Ted Mahon rarely have off-days. All in all, a solid men’s field.

On the women’s side, this is the deepest field in recent memory with a lot of tough and experienced women who’ve performed well here in the past. Last year’s champion Anna Frost will be returning to defend her title in the opposite direction. She will likely be chased by the entire podium from last year. Included are three-time champ Darcy Piceu, who is on the ‘Veterans’ waitlist but who will probably get in, as well as Darla Askew who was third here last year. Newcomer to Hardrock, Bethany Lewis, has not lost a 100-mile race yet and recently won the Fat Dog 120 Mile in British Columbia which is reportedly more difficult than Hardrock. Missy Gosney and Meghan Hicks (4th and 7th from last year) now have experience on this course which will further place them in contention. Throw in Petra Pirc, a tough mountain runner who was third at the 2014 Bear 100 Mile, and Betsy Kalmeyer, who is going for her 17th(!!!!) finish and who was second in 2014, as well as Katie DeSplinter, who is high on the First-Timers waitlist but who will probably get in.

Automatic Entrants

There is only one way to gain auto entry into Hardrock, and that is by winning last year’s race. Kilian Jornet and Anna Frost have both chosen to use those entries.

Notable Men’s 2016 Hardrock 100 Entrants

Here are the men who gained entrance via today’s lottery.

  • Jeff Browning — 4th 2014 Hardrock, 3rd 2015 Ultra-Trail Mount Fuji
  • Ryan Burch — Winner 2015 Never Summer 100k, 7th 2015 Run Rabbit Run 100 Mile
  • Nick Clark — 3rd 2011 Hardrock
  • Nick Coury — 3-time Hardrock finisher including 11th man in 2015
  • Troy Howard — 3-time Hardrock finisher including 5th in 2015
  • Scott Jaime — 8-time Hardrock finisher including 5th in 2014 and 3rd in 2012
  • Andy Jones-Wilkins — 5th 2009 Hardrock, 7 top-10 Western States finishes
  • Ben Lewis — 7th 2015 Hardrock 100
  • Ryan Kaiser — 6th 2015 The North Face Endurance Challenge 50-Mile Champs, 11th 2015 Western States
  • Ted Mahon — 7-time Hardrock finisher including 10th in 2014 and 5th in 2013
  • Timothy Olson — 2-time Western States winner and course-record holder
  • Bryon Powell — 14th man 2015 Hardrock, 3rd 2015 Ultra-Trail Gobi Race
  • Jon Robinson — 2nd 2013 Cascade Crest 100, 10th man 2013 Hardrock
  • Jason Schlarb — Winner 2015 Run Rabbit Run 100 Mile, 4th 2014 UTMB
  • Kevin Shilling — 3rd 2004 Hardrock
  • Patrick Stewart — 10th 2012 Hardrock
  • Xavier Thévenard — 2013 and 2015 UTMB winner

Notable Women’s 2016 Hardrock 100 Entrants

Here are the women who gained entrance via today’s lottery.

  • Darla Askew — 3-time Hardrock finisher including 3rd in 2015
  • Missy Gosney — 4th 2015 Hardrock
  • Meghan Hicks — 7th 2015 Hardrock
  • Betsy Kalmeyer  — 16-time Hardrock finisher including 6th in 2015 and 2nd in 2014
  • Bethany Lewis — winner 2015 Fat Dog 120 Miler, winner 2014 Wasatch Front 100 Mile
  • Sarah Evans McCloskey — 6th 2014 Hardrock
  • Petra Pirc — 8th 2015 Speedgoat 50k, 3rd 2015 Bear 100
  • Emma Roca — 5th 2015 Western States, winner 2014 Leadville Trail 100 Mile, 3rd 2013 UTMB
  • Tina Ure — 4th 2014 Hardrock

Waitlisted Men with at Least a Remote Chance of Getting In

Here are the male contenders who were chosen in the top-20 slots of the First-Timers waitlist, the top-15 slots of the Veterans waitlist, or the top-30 slots of the Everyone Else waitlist. These men have a good shot of getting off their respective waitlists and into the run.

  • Joe Grant — 7th on Else waitlist
  • Jamil Coury — 12th on Else waitlist
  • Nick Pedatella — 14th on Else waitlist

Waitlisted Women with at Least a Remote Chance of Getting In

Here are the female contenders who were chosen in either the top-20 slots of the First-Timers waitlist, the top-15 slots of the Veterans waitlist, or the top-30 slots of the Everyone Else waitlist. These women have a decent shot of running.

  • Katie DeSplinter — 5th on First-Timers waitlist
  • Leah Fein — 19th on Else waitlist
  • Darcy Piceu — 7th on Veteran waitlist, 3-time Hardrock champ and 2015 runner-up

Notable Waitlisted Men with Pretty Much No Chance of Getting In

Here are some fast men who are so far down their respective waitlist that there is almost no chance of them getting in.

  • Jay Aldous
  • Adam Campbell
  • Seb Chaigneau
  • Yassine Diboun
  • Mike Foote
  • Matt Hart
  • Iker Karrera
  • Keith Knipling
  • Keita Kobayashi
  • Jason Koop
  • Anton Krupicka
  • Eric Lee
  • Steven Moore
  • Chris Price
  • Brandon Stapanowich
  • Brendan Trimboli
  • Zach Violett
  • Adam Wilcox

Notable Waitlisted Women with Pretty Much No Chance of Getting In

Here are some fast women who are so far down their respective waitlist that there is almost no chance of them getting in.

  • Clare Abram
  • Jennifer Benna
  • Kate Fogelberg
  • Pam Reed
  • Nicki Rehn
  • Ronda Sundermeier

Call for Comments

  • Who are you most excited about running the 2016 Hardrock 100?
  • Who are your picks as favorites? Did we miss anyone who should be on these lists?
  • If you’re in, how excited are you to be racing Hardrock next year?
Tom Caughlan

is iRunFar’s Minimalist Gear Editor. Tom’s passion for trail running and specialty running retail experience shine through in all of his highly technical reviews, which do range outside minimalist shoes.

There are 29 comments

  1. npedatella

    Looks like it is going to be a good race for both the men and women. On the men's side I would add Jon Robinson to the list. He could certainly be in the top 10.

    I would say that Fat Dog 120 is easier than Hardrock, though I think the extra 20 miles make them fairly close in terms of the overall time. So Bethany's 30ish hour CR at Fat Dog should translate to a roughly similar time at Hardrock, which will definitely put her in the mix for a podium spot.

    1. TomCaughlan

      I don't know. I think with another patient race and a full season of training, rather than, uh… two months barely, we could see a contender. I'm always impressed what you can do off of minimal training and smart racing Bryon.

      1. Bryon of iRunFar

        Hey, Tom, let's see if I can actually get that training in first. I had a couple nice training blocks, but work took me away from training a bunch, too. I'll also be tweaking my training slightly from protection toward performance know that I know what the course has in store. Without knowing the conditions, it's hard to shoot for a time, but if next year's at all like this year, I'd be aiming for sub-30.

  2. rpg1966

    Excuse my ignorance of their entry system, but does Hardrock not reserve some "wildcard" places for notable athletes that we'd all love to see in the race?

    1. kjz

      They spell out how they do it on their website if I'm not mistaken. Some of those who designed the system are "rocket scientists" or the equivalent… No, really, not joking.

  3. another_william

    Very cool to see that Xavier Thévenard is on the list. I would love to see him take on Jornet on the UTMB course, but this should be just as good.

  4. Bartels

    @rpg1966 – Yes, although it has been asked number of times via different forums and hasn't been confirmed, I believe that the board has 5 picks. I would bet I know at least 3 of the picks from last year. I would say 1 fell into the elite category (think female) and my other two guesses are everyday folks that we all know (male and female).

    With the announcement of Altra as a sponsor, I predicted that there would be 2 Altra people that bypassed the lottery. I was wrong. There are at least 4 and maybe more!! Schlarb, Clark, Browning, Beckstead. All Altra folks. This is not random, do the math if you like. This is almost the same list of people that got into WS, which Altra sponsors as well. What a coincidence, huh? Sponsor slots should be eliminated. Both here and at WS. At least WS is completely transparent about how people gain entry. Boo to Altra and HR.

    I would be ok with the board picks if they gave out slots to folks who really deserve a shot at the race – yes for volunteers and the like and NO for sponsors or elites. I really wish the HR board would address this AND make it public who gets picked. I think it is unfair to the rest of those that put in year after year. Since they seem to be avoiding the question, my guess is that the rumor is true.

    It is a shame, but inevitable that corporatism is starting to play a major role in our fringe sport.

    1. 1579sulliva

      You've been spreading this rumor for some time now. Do you have any proof of this practice from the Hardrock Board? Not responding to false accusations does not make them guilty.

      1. Bartels

        I believe that I first read it from an article published by here on irunfar. I'll see if I can find the article. Maybe a few years ago. It was a subtle comment, but it has always stuck with me
        This question has been posed to the HR people by me here and others on social media. I've even seen the question posted on their Facebook page. No response.

        Why not simply answer YES or NO? I'm just trying to get an answer.

        I'm sure there are people on here that are friends with the board members.

        Like I said before, I don't care that they MIGHT do it, I'd just wish the process would be transparent.
        I'm actually in favor of special picks for this race if it involves giving those spots to people who have gone above and beyond to contribute to the the race year after year- volunteers, course markers, people who do a lot for our sport, etc. I'd just rather not see spots go to the highest bidder. If that's going to be the case, why not do an auction and let the rest of the public bid on spots?

    2. mikehinterberg

      You're making a few claims here. First is the speculation of HR special picks. I think the evidence is flimsy (because they haven't commented?), but I guess it's your speculation.

      The 2nd is your particular suggestion on corporatism and specific athletes. "This is not random, do the math if you like. " This is both unfounded and unwarranted. To make your claim mathematically, you would need to identify all the Altra athletes that entered the lottery, and then calculate (or simulate) the expectation of how many would be selected by chance, and the distribution around that expectation. Even at a quick glance — many of us aren't as up-to-date on sponsors and personalities — there are several, if not numerous, of those sponsored entrants that were not selected. Then, see if 4 Altra-sponsored runners is significantly different from that expectation.
      Until then, this speculation isn't even mathematically grounded.

      More personally, "I would be ok with the board picks if they gave out slots to folks who really deserve a shot at the race." As but one of your examples, Nick alone had ~50% chance of getting in, through entering and not getting in the last 4-5 years. Your speculation about what *might* happen — even though statistically there isn't evidence for it — is coming at an absolute cost of diminishing the worthiness of the people who were selected.

      Not that they need the defense, but I think "soap opera gossip" playing a major role in our fringe sport is as much of an issue as "corporatism."

      Congratulations to those that made it in, and this summary article.

      1. Bartels

        You make great points that I can't argue with. I actually agree with most of them. I'm just annoyed to see good friends get passed up for elites or sponsor slots. FYI I didn't apply to either HR or WS this year. Without wasting time on the math, I still believe that the distribution of Altra runners is non-random.

        Another example – Beckstead had 32 (maybe 64)4 tickets and a decent shot at getting picked. Does he 'deserve' to get picked – for sure. He's put his time in. Does he deserve to get a spot because his company is paying money to HR – absolutely not. Same goes for Clark, Schlarb, Browning, etc.

        The whole point of my post from the very first time I asked this question (maybe 2-3 years ago!) was to get an answer. Does the HR board have 5 special picks? I don't think too many people would be upset if this was true.

        If so, then my OPINION is that those should go to those that deserve it through selfless contribution to the race and community and not to elites (this is a RUN not a RACE) or sponsors. I haven't run HR or WS, but I'd rather pay an extra $200 (or whatever the number might be) to be able to do away with sponsor slots. I don't want a free pair of socks or a water bottle or a t-shirt.

        Again, as most of you will probably disagree, but I don't care about the elites in the races or how competitive the filed is. I want to see my friends and family out there. Again, most will probably disagree, but since these races are on OUR PUBLIC lands, if nothing else, at least the selection process should be transparent.

        Still waiting for an answer to my original question. I'll disappear if we ever get one.

      2. Bartels

        That and you didn't get my point on who 'deserves' to run.

        Hypothetically speaking, IF they have 5 special spots, I think giving that those spots to a person that runs an aid station for 5 years (as a single example of service to the race and community) is giving it to someone that 'deserves' to run HR. Sponsors and elites don't 'deserve' those slots.

        Again, this is all based on the assumption that this is actually true. Pure speculation.

    3. Buzz

      I cannot say for sure, but I am doubtful Altra paid sponsorship money as a way to gain entries; my assumption is they want to support the event.

      Ultimate Direction is also a HR100 sponsor, and since I manage UD I can comment with sureness on that. We love the event, and are very happy to kick in a small amount of cash to make it better. It sure line Dale's pocket; that's for sure.

      I've always found "corporate involvement" to be a strange discussion – since none of us do our running naked while foraging for roots and berries, corporations are very involved with everything, with everyone, everyday. I guess like you already said, transparency and fairness are the keys.

      BTW, Matt Trappe has been working on a very nice film, with official support from the HR100 Board, and the Trailer has just been released – everyone might want to take a peek: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9Q3_beydfs&f

      1. Bartels

        Thanks for your reply. It is very much appreciated.

        Yes, you are correct. Even though I'm against sponsors getting spots (my opinion), especially in races with such high demand like WS and HR, I would be more accepting if everything is transparent.

    4. t__dog

      I decided to do the math, as was suggested.

      So, there are 15(!) runners on the Altra elite team entered into Hardrock, plus Brian Beckstead. Most of them are in the never lottery with only 1 or 2 tickets however. Only the four mentioned were accepted; the couple who were waitlisted are low enough on the list that they definitely won't be running this year.

      – The expected value of the number of these Altra runners getting into Hardrock is 1.77. (So your prediction of 2 Altra runners being accepted would be par for the course!)
      – The probability of at least one Altra runner getting into Hardrock is 0.879.
      – The probability of at least two getting in is 0.567.
      – The probability of at least three getting in is 0.244.
      – The probability of at least four getting in 0.067.

      This is admittedly not what I was expecting; I anticipated the probability of at least four Altra athletes getting in being much higher. However, ~7% is not the longest of odds, and I am much more comfortable believing that an event with probability 0.067 occurred than believing that the Hardrock board is conspiring to sell lottery spots for sponsorship. I mean, Hardrock's lottery policies are already pretty unpopular as is (not that I have a problem with them) – they don't seem to care that many ultrarunners already perceive the lottery as unfair (with how much more likely previous finishers are to get in). I don't see why they wouldn't just be open about it. For what it's worth, the Wasatch committee states that they reserve the right to admit 5 at large runners outside of the lottery. What interest does Hardrock have not admitting they are doing the same, as you accuse?

      1. mikehinterberg

        Just had to check in to give you props for doing the math — (well done!
        And great response, I agree with everything you said in the last paragraph.

      2. W. Aaron Stewart

        This is extremely faulty math.

        you may want to check this out.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

        You've applied it to the lottery to find results consistent with your expectations. If your math was being done correctly, you would be measuring each individual's chance per pull, not as a group of pulls related to one another, which they are not. The chances of each Altra athlete being pulled are related to their tickets, against the probability of spots left in total, I'm sure if this was an issue I cared more about I could graph it. The fact that four "Altra" athletes were pulled is no more relevant than the number of people who wear red shorts being pulled. Your mathematical system could be applied to any number of superfluous conventions not related to tickets .v. the probability of being pulled and analyzed however you would like. I think the fact that Nick Clarke accumulated most, if not all of his tickets as a pearl Izumi athlete, and Jeff Browning as a Patagonia athlete would be enough to dissuade you from any type of conspiracy on it's own.

        1. t__dog

          I did measure each individual's chance of being pulled. All 16 athletes had separate probabilities of being chosen.

          Suppose A_1, A_2, … A_16 are the events where each athlete is chosen for the Hardrock lottery. One can calculate P(A_k) by a Monte Carlo simulation or by an estimation which should be accurate to a few decimal digits. (I chose the latter; I'm happy to share my method if requested. It estimates the number of tickets remaining after each pull by removing the average tickets per runner.) I'm not collecting their tickets into a group or anything like that.

          P(4 Altra runners being chosen) = P(A_i intersect A_j intersect A_k intersect A_l for some i,j,k,l distinct) = sum of P(A_i intersect A_j intersect A_k intersect A_l) over all valid i,j,k,l = sum of P(A_i)P(A_j)P(A_k)P(A_l) over all valid i,j,k,l, since the A_i's are relatively independent. (Not quite, because if runner i is pulled, this decreases runner j's chance of getting pulled, but this is close enough.)

          The sum has many terms but can be calculated in, for example, R.

          I apologize for not explaining my methodology earlier.

          Edit: Just a little bit more explanation as to my justification for why one might care about this calculation. Ignore if you like.

          Essentially, the lottery serves as a test with very low statistical power. The null hypothesis, H_0, is that there is no shenanigans and that the lottery odds for all runners are as published and the alternative hypothesis, H_A, is that the lottery is fixed in some way to bias Altra-sponspored athletes. We consider the test, suggested indirectly by Bartels, that we reject H_0 if, as has happened, 4 or more Altra runners were accepted. In order to compute the significance level of this test, we find the probability of a type I error – the probability of rejecting H_0 when it is in fact true. P(accepted Altra runner >= 4 | the lotto odds are as published) = 0.067, as I correctly(!) calculated. We conclude that this test of 4 or more Altra runners being accepted is not a very good test; the probability of a type I error is too high; the significance level is greater than the typically accepted level of 0.05.

  5. Melvin Von Hornsby

    ◾Who are you most excited about running the 2016 Hardrock 100?

    Me. I am most excited about me running the 2016 Hardrock 100.

  6. clayscience

    Is there any word on Rob Krar? Ultrasignup says he submitted an application, but he isn't on the accepted or wait lists. Did he withdraw his application or is he just so far down he isn't even wait listed? I really wanted to see how he ran on this course.

    1. @amysproston

      Most "never" entrants don't get drawn so are not listed on the accepted or wait lists. There were something like 1300+ applicants for 47 spots. They go 100 deep on the never wait list. He could have withdrawn his entry, but I'm guessing he's like the 1150 others who simply didn't get drawn.

      1. TomCaughlan

        I just missed putting him on the list due to feverishly trying to keep track of everything. My mistake. Thanks for the catch and I'll get the article updated.

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