2016 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

Western States 100 logoWelcome to iRunFar’s eighth annual Western States 100 prediction contest! FloraJulbo, and Inov-8, along with artist Maggie Tides have all contributed great prizes. As with last year, we’ll have both merit-based winners as well as a random winner, so give this contest an honest go and you could end up bringing home some great gear!

Read on to learn how this contest works, to see what you can win, and to enter the contest.

The Basics*
Flora HealthThe rules are the same as they’ve been the previous seven years. You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your 10 scoring runners (5 men and 5 women).

Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Ian Sharman for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick Sharman to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tie-breaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

This contest is open worldwide!

The contest will close at 6 7 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 22. [We’re keeping the contest open for an extra hour due to an accidental early takedown!] That’ll give me time to, once again, analyze all your picks for a group analysis prior to the race.

To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of the live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race! On race day, we’ll also have a Live Coverage page with additional insight and commentary as well as an open discussion.

The Prizes

Merit Prizes
We’ve got such an awesome assortment of prizes that we’re going to launch right into what each of the three merit-based prize winners will receive.

  • First Place
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, and 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron;
    • From Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 X-Claw 275, X-Talon 225, or Trail Talon 250, a RaceUltra Pack, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From Margaret Tides: A gorgeous triptych of the Western States course.
  • Second Place
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, and 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron;
    • Julbo LogoFrom Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 X-Claw 275, X-Talon 225, or Trail Talon 250, a Race Elite Vest, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks.
  • Third Place
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, and 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron;
    • Inov-8 logoFrom Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 X-Claw 275, X-Talon 225, or Trail Talon 250, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks; and
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they bested more than 1,000 other entrants. Nice work guys! 1st: Aaron Elliso, 2nd: Clayton DeLosier, 3rd: Tom Welker. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.

Maggie Tides - Western States Trail Triptych

Maggie Tides Western States Trail triptych.

Random Prize
This year, we’re awarding one random grand prize awarded at random to one lucky entrant who give the contest an honest attempt.

  • Grand Prize Random Winner: Same pack as the overall winner (minus the art)!
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, and 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 X-Claw 275, X-Talon 225, or Trail Talon 250, a RaceUltra Pack, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks.

The Contest

You may want to check out our regularly updated men’s and women’s previews before you make your picks. Make sure your favorites are actually running!

[Entries for this year’s Western States prediction contest are now closed.]

*The Details
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks – please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Magdalena Boulet to place overall and win the women’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business; we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, to make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly-published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own… we’d recommend it as some top entrants will not be running the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

  • Here at iRunFar, we’ve published our women’s and men’s previews and will be publishing a slew of interviews in the coming days. We update the previews whenever we receive new information about athletes. (In other words, stay tuned!)

The Closing

If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

If you enjoy what iRunFar provides, consider becoming a fan of iRunFar on Facebook or subscribing by the methods noted above.

[Editor’s Notes:
Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for building the backbone for this contest. There would be no contest without him. Thanks, too, to Mike Place for setting up this year’s contest.

Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of yore. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

There are 12 comments

    1. Todd

      Meghan, the rules say that you can just submit it again with the same email address and that will override the initial entry.

    2. Meghan Hicks

      Meghan, sorry for the delay in replying, we’ve been stuck in a flight-delay wormhole. ;) Todd’s got it right, submit a second time but use the same contact info and we’ll use your last entry as your final one. Thanks for playing along!

    1. Meghan Hicks

      Sorry about that. We reopened them for an extra hour, until 7 p.m. PDT on Wednesday night. We hadn’t changed the clock on the iRunFar computer today when we crossed from Mountain to Pacific Time!

      1. Brian Vanderheiden

        If still possible Meghan, here are my picks:
        Thank you!

        Men:

        Walmsley
        Laney
        D’Haene
        Lorblanchet
        Canaday
        Browning
        Sharman
        Denucci
        Giblin
        Kostelnick

        Women

        Magdalena
        Kaci
        Aliza
        Devon Y.
        Caroline B.
        Sally M.
        Nicole K.
        Amy Sproston
        Bethany P.
        Jodee Adams-Moore

        Masters

        Magdalena
        Terranova

    1. Bryon Powell

      I’ll have them up this weekend. It’s a busy stretch for me between Western States and Hardrock! (And this is the first year where I’m taking care of the tabulation side of things.)

      1. Bryon Powell

        Robert,
        I’m now confident the results will be up this weekend as I’ve successfully pulled together the results. Now, a bunch of formatting to go along with some writing. :-)

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