2014 Western States 100 Prediction Contest
June 17, 2014 by Bryon Powell · 4 Comments
Welcome to iRunFar’s sixth annual Western States 100 prediction contest! Inov-8 is supporting the contest with great prize packages going to the top-three prognosticators as well as three random entrants. Julbo is also generously providing a pair of running sunglasses to each of the six winners.
The rules are the same as they’ve been the previous five years. You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your 10 scoring runners (5 men and 5 women).
Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Dylan Bowman for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick Bowman to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.
Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tie-breaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.
This contest is open worldwide!
The contest will close at
6 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 25. That’ll give me time to, once again, analyze all your picks for a group analysis prior to the race.
To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of the live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race! On race day, we’ll also have a Live Coverage page with additional insight and commentary as well as an open discussion.
As noted above, Inov-8 is providing great products to give away. All six winners will receive a pair of soon-to-be-released RaceUltra 290s, Inov-8’s new ultra-specific shoe. Depending on placing, merit-based winners will also receive Inov-8’s Race Ultra Vest, their choice of an Inov-8 Race Elite Shell, and their choice of an Inov-8 shirt and/or shorts. Each winner will receive his or her choice of a pair of running sunglasses courtesy of Julbo.
- First Place: A pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, choice of Inov-8 Race Elite Shell, and the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, as well as his or her choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses;
- Second Place: A pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, and choice of Inov-8 shirt, as well as his or her choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses;
- Third Place: A pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, choice of Inov-8 shirt, choice of Inov-8 short, as well as his or her choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they topped more than 800 entries. Nice work guys! 1st: John Medinger, 2nd: Kevin Landis, 3rd: Thomas Riley. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.
This year, we’re awarding prize packages to three random prediction contest entrants. These prize packs will be awarded at random to lucky entrants who give the contest an honest attempt. (Trust me, I’ll know an honest attempt when I see one! ;-) )
- Grand Prize Random Winner: Same pack as the overall winner! A pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, choice of Inov-8 Race Elite Shell, and the Inov-8 Race Ultra Vest, as well as his or her choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses;
- 2 Random Runner Ups: A pair of Inov-8 RaceUltra 290s, as well as his or her choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
[Update: Contest entries are now closed.]
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks – please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Nick Clark to place overall and win the men’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business; we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, to make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly-published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own… we’d recommend it as some top entrants will not be running the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.
- Here at iRunFar, we’ve published our men’s and women’s previews and will be publishing a slew of interviews in the coming days. We update the previews whenever we receive new information about athletes.
If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!
Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for once again being the brains and brawn behind this contest. There would be no contest without him.
Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of yore. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]