2018 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

iRunFar’s 2018 Western States 100 prediction contest.

By on June 13, 2018 | Comments

Western States 100 logo[Editor’s Note – July 3rd: Due to its age, an error has popped up in program that compiles the prediction contest results. We hope to sort this out soon and provide the prediction contest results.]

Welcome to iRunFar’s tenth (!?!) annual Western States 100 prediction contest! Drymax, Jaybird, Buff, AltraJulbo, and CamelBak along with artist Maggie Tides have all contributed great prizes. As in the past few years, we’ll have both merit-based winners as well as a random winner, so give this contest an honest go and you could end up bringing home some great gear!

Read on to learn how this contest works, to see what you can win, and to enter the contest.

The Basics*

Drymax - 2017 Western States 100The rules are the same as they’ve been the previous nine years. You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your 10 scoring runners (5 men and 5 women).

Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Ian Sharman for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick Sharman to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Drymax iRunFar Sock

The Drymax iRunFar Sock!

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tiebreaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

Please note that the entrants list used is as of 9:10 p.m. PDT on June 12th. While there will be changes to the entrants list before race day with the new waitlist system, we’re all on a level playing field picking from the same list.

The contest will close at 6 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 20. That’ll give me time to, once again, analyze all your picks for a group analysis prior to the race.

To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of the live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race! On race day, we’ll also have a live-coverage page with additional insight and commentary as well as an open discussion.

The Prizes

Merit Prizes
We’ve got such an awesome assortment of prizes that we’re going to launch right into what each of the three merit-based prize winners will receive.

  • Third Place
    • From Drymax: 2 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing;Julbo Logo
    • From Jaybird: The winner’s choice of the Freedom 2 or Run wireless headphones;
    • From Buff®: A soon-to-launch iRunFar BUFF® Original Multifunctional Headwear;
    • From Altra: The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From CamelBak: The choice of any CamelBak running pack.

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they bested more than 1,100 other entrants. Nice work folks! 1st: iRunFar’s Kristin Zosel, 2nd: Harris Brenner, 3rd: Nathan Cornelius. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.

Maggie Tides - Western States Trail Triptych

Maggie Tides Western States Trail triptych.

Random Prize
This year, we’re awarding one random grand prize randomly to one lucky entrant who gives the contest an honest attempt.

  • Grand Prize Random Winner: Same pack as the overall winner (minus the art)!
    • From Drymax: 6 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing;
    • From Jaybird: The winner’s choice of the Freedom 2 or Run wireless headphones;
    • From Buff®: A soon-to-launch iRunFar BUFF® Original Multifunctional Headwear;
      From Altra:
       The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses; and
    • From CamelBak: The choice of any CamelBak running pack.

The Contest

You may want to check out our regularly updated men’s and women’s previews before you make your picks. Make sure your favorites are actually running!

[This year’s prediction contest is now closed.]

*The Details
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks–please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Maeghan Laws to place overall and win the women’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business; we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own… we’d recommend it as some top entrants usually end up missing the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

  • Here at iRunFar, we’ve published our women’s and men’s previews and will be publishing a slew of interviews in the coming days. We update the previews whenever we receive new information about athletes. (In other words, stay tuned!)

The Closing

If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

If you enjoy what iRunFar provides, consider becoming a fan of iRunFar on Facebook or subscribing by the methods noted above.

[Editor’s Note: Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for building the backbone for our prediction contests. There would be no contest without him. Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of long ago. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

Bryon Powell

Bryon Powell is the Founding Editor of iRunFar. He’s been writing about trail running, ultrarunning, and running gear for more than 15 years. Aside from iRunFar, he’s authored the books Relentless Forward Progress: A Guide to Running Ultramarathons and Where the Road Ends: A Guide to Trail Running, been a contributing editor at Trail Runner magazine, written for publications including Outside, Sierra, and Running Times, and coached ultrarunners of all abilities. Based in Silverton, Colorado, Bryon is an avid trail runner and ultrarunner who competes in events from the Hardrock 100 Mile just out his front door to races long and short around the world, that is, when he’s not fly fishing or tending to his garden.