2015 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

Western States 100 logoWelcome to iRunFar’s seventh annual Western States 100 prediction contest! CLIF Bar, Inov-8, Flora, Julbo, and artist Maggie Tides have all contributed great prizes. As with last year, we’ll have both merit-based as well as random winners, so give this contest an honest go and you could end up bringing home some great gear!

Read on to learn how this contest works, to see what you can win, and to enter the contest.

The Basics*
The rules are the same as they’ve been the previous six years. You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your 10 scoring runners (5 men and 5 women).

Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Alex Varner for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick Varner to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tie-breaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

This contest is open worldwide!

The contest will close at 6 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 24th Thursday, June 25. That’ll give me time to, once again, analyze all your picks for a group analysis prior to the race.

To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of the live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race! On race day, we’ll also have a Live Coverage page with additional insight and commentary as well as an open discussion.

The Prizes

Merit Prizes
We’ve got such an awesome assortment of prizes that we’re going to launch right into what each of the three merit-based prize winners will receive.

  • First Place
    • Clif Organic Energy FoodFrom CLIF: 1 box of Clif Organic Energy Food, 1 box of Clif Shot Gel, 1 box of Clif Bloks, 2 boxes of Clif Hydration Drink, and 1 box of Clif Recovery drink;
    • From Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 TerraClaw 250s or RaceUltra 290v2s, a RaceUltra Pack, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks;
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil & 7 Sources, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron, and a 8.5 oz. bottle of Magnesium;
    • From Margaret Tides: A gorgeous triptych of the Western States course; and
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
  • Second Place
    • From CLIF: 1 box of Clif Organic Energy Food, 1 box of Clif Shot Gel, 1 box of Clif Bloks, 2 boxes of Clif Hydration Drink, and 1 box of Clif Recovery drink;
    • Inov-8 logoFrom Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 TerraClaw 250s or RaceUltra 290v2s, a Race Elite Vest, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks;
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil & 7 Sources, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron, and a 8.5 oz. bottle of Magnesium;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
  • Third Place
    • From CLIF: 1 box of Clif Organic Energy Food, 1 box of Clif Shot Gel, 1 box of Clif Bloks, 2 boxes of Clif Hydration Drink, and 1 box of Clif Recovery drink;
    • From Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 TerraClaw 250s or RaceUltra 290v2s, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks;
    • FloraFrom Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil & 7 Sources, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron, and a 8.5 oz. bottle of Magnesium;
    • From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they bested more than 1,000 other entrants. Nice work guys! 1st: Gary Erhmann, 2nd: Eric Lee, 3rd: James Chyllo. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.

Maggie Tides Western States Trail Triptych

Maggie Tides Western States 100 course triptych.

Random Prizes
This year, we’re awarding one random grand prize as well as four additional prize packages from Clif. These prize packs will be awarded at random to lucky entrants who give the contest an honest attempt. (Trust me, I’ll know an honest attempt when I see one! ;-) )

  • Grand Prize Random Winner: Same pack as the overall winner (minus the art)!
    • From CLIF: 1 box of Clif Organic Energy Food, 1 box of Clif Shot Gel, 1 box of Clif Bloks, 2 boxes of Clif Hydration Drink, and 1 box of Clif Recovery drink;
    • From Inov-8: The choice of a pair of Inov-8 TerraClaw 250s or RaceUltra 290v2s, a RaceUltra Pack, an Inov-8 Tee Shirt, an Inov-8 Hat, and Inov-8 Socks;
    • From Flora: 17 oz. bottles of Udo’s Oil & 7 Sources, 1 jar of Red Beet Crystals, 8.5 oz. bottle of Floradix Iron, and a 8.5 oz. bottle of Magnesium; and
    • Julbo LogoFrom Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.
  • 4 Additional Random Runner Ups: A box of Clif Organic Energy Food.

The Contest

You may want to check out our regularly updated men’s and women’s previews before you make your picks. Make sure your favorites are actually running!

[The 2015 iRunFar Western States 100 Prediction Contest is now closed.]

*The Details
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks – please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Pam Smith to place overall and win the women’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business; we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, to make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly-published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own… we’d recommend it as some top entrants will not be running the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

  • Here at iRunFar, we’ve published our women’s and men’s previews and will be publishing a slew of interviews in the coming days. We update the previews whenever we receive new information about athletes. (In other words, stay tuned!)

The Closing
If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

If you enjoy what iRunFar provides, consider becoming a fan of iRunFar on Facebook or subscribing by the methods noted above.

[Editor’s Notes:
Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for once again being the brains and brawn behind this contest. There would be no contest without him.

Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of yore. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

There are 11 comments

    1. @Shinsccr8

      I'm going to go out on a limb and say R. Smith is going to put up a real fight. I'm going to say top 5. I'm happy that many are putting him at 10 though without knowing him.

  1. BrettSC

    I took 20 of the favorites and threw darts at a wall:
    1) Ian Sharman
    2) Francois D'Haene
    3) Ryan Sands
    4) Alex Varner
    5) Dylan Bowman
    6) Seth Swanson
    7) David Laney
    8) Jared Hazen
    9) Ryan Smith
    10) Jorge Pacheco

    fyi, the Rob Krar dart hit Ian Sharman's and then fell to the floor.

  2. twabshaw

    Egad! I spent all evening working on my predictions, but when I went to submit, I found the contest was closed. Take pity on me Bryon!

    I'm new to ultra's, so I picked from runners mentioned in the irunfar previews then used last year's WS100 results, ultrasignup rankings, and recent race performances to guide my predictions:

    Men
    1Francois D'Haene
    2Ryan Sandes
    3Seth Swanson
    4Rob Krar (I've got Rob down for fourth, but I'd love to see him win)
    5David Laney
    6Julien Chorier
    7Ian Sharman
    8Dylan Bowman
    9Ford Smith
    10Joe Grant

    Master's Men: Dan Lenz (I'm hopeful for Dan, winner of the 2015 Umstead 100, a race just minutes away from my house. I paced another runner that night, but Dan finished (2nd) long before I set foot on the course–he's pretty quick!)

    Women
    1 Magdalenda Boulet
    2Stephanie Howe
    3Kaci Lickteig
    4Nikki Kimball
    5Pam Smith
    6Denise Bourassa
    7Meghan Arbogast
    8Kerrie Wlad
    9Sally McRae
    10Shaheen Sattar

    Masters Women:Shelley Cook

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