2011 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

[While this contest is closed, be sure to check out all of iRunFar’s Western States coverage located at the top of the righthand sidebar. Also, we take this chance to remind you that we’ll be live-casting the race on iRunFar’s Twitter feed, so be sure to follow us!]

Western States 100 logoWelcome to iRunFar’s third annual Western States 100 prediction contest! Montrail and Mountain Hardwear are once again supporting the contest with great prize packages going to the top three prognosticators! Read on to learn how this contest works, to see what you can win, and to enter the contest.

The Basics*
You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your ten scoring runners (5 men and 5 women).

Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Andy Jones-Wilkins, for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick AJW to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tie-breaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

While anyone can enter the prediction contest, the Montrail/Mountain Hardwear prizes will only be awarded to folks with US or Canadian mailing addresses. That said, we’ll do our best to reward any winners from further abroad.

The contest will close at 3 a.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 22 – exactly one week after it opens. That’ll give me time to once again analyze all your picks prior to running Western States.

To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of our live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race!

The Prizes
Montrail logoAs noted above, Montrail and Mountain Hardwear are once again providing great products to give away. To start, all first and second place will receive their choice of a pair of Montrail shoes. Those top two places will also receive their choice of one Mountain Hardwear’s Refueler short models (men) or a MH Pace(r) short or skort model. In addition, the grand prize winner will take home a shirt from Mountain Hardwear’s Wicked Lite performance line. Third place will win a Montrail hat to sport along with their choice of Montrail recovery shoes.

Mountain Hardware logoFor those of you who like bullet points, here goes:

  • First Place – Pair of Montrail shoes, Mountain Hardwear Refueler/Pace(r) bottom, Mountain Hardwear Wicked Lite performance shirt
  • Second Place – Pair of Montrail shoes, Mountain Hardwear Refueler/Pace(r) bottom
  • Third Place – Pair of Montrail recovery shoes, Montrail Hat

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they topped more than 200 entries. Nice work guys! 1st: Jane Larkindale, 2nd: John Medinger, 3rd: Mike Chastain. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.

The Contest
The contest is now closed.

*The Details
Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks – please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Tsuyoshi Kaburaki to place overall and win the men’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business – we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints
We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, to make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own…. we’d recommend it as some top entrants will not be running the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

  • iRunFar will published numerous interviews with top competitors. These will be embedded at the top of our righthand sidebar until after the race.
  • Karl Meltzer has posted his odds – Roes and Greenwood for the win.
  • Andy Jones-Wilkins will surely have some useful info on his blog.

The Closing
If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

If you enjoy what iRunFar provides, consider becoming a fan of iRunFar on Facebook or subscribing by the methods noted above.

[Editor’s Notes: Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for once again being the brains and brawn behind this contest. There would be no contest without him.

Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of yore. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

There are 22 comments

  1. Reid Landes

    Every year come March Madness someone asks me: "Wanna fill out a bracket?" I just laugh because I have no chance (and very little interest). But this! Maybe… just maybe! Thanks for the opportunity.

    –Reid

  2. Mike Place

    Hmmm, I went a slightly different direction than I thought I would. I think it's going to be the mountain runners who excel in the snow and mud who come out ahead. Roes and Kimball are my picks. Fun contest!

  3. Trail Clown, Hamilto

    The key question is, should I be putting Bryon Powell in my top ten? Hmmm, decisions, decisions…Well, even if you are not gunning for a top ten overall, I hope you have a great race! I'll be rootin' for ya in my arm chair next to the computer, be relentless in your forward progress!

  4. James

    I think Meghan Arbogast is a lock for Master's Women…my guess would be Mackey, Koerner, Wolfe, and Braje in a tight pack letting Kilian and Geoff wear each other out on the mountains. Thanks for the fun Bryon…

  5. footfeathers

    1 jornet

    2 clark

    3 roes

    4 burch

    5 koerner

    6 mackey

    7 loutitt

    8 wolfe

    Ladies

    1 lapierre

    2 garneau

    3 greenwood

    4 ortiz

    5 cospolich

    6 bosio

    7 wheeler

    8 kimblall

    masters:

    men – mackey

    women – ortiz

  6. Speedgoatkarl

    1. Roes

    2. Jornet

    3. Clark

    4. Koerner

    5. Mackey

    6. James

    7. Wolfe

    8. Sim Jae-Duk

    Women:

    1. Greenwood

    2. Semick

    3. Smith

    4. Garneau

    5. Vaught

    6. Ortiz

    7. Lapierre

    8. Kimball

    I don't do Masters, cuz' all these guys above, even if they are over 40 are "not" Masters yet. :-)

  7. Trailgirl

    The womens race is going to be the one to watch this year. So much new and not well known talent! At the end of the day I think Lapierre will emerge the winner. Lapierre and Jornet.

  8. Dan Cumming

    Only have one prediction. Don't do this kind of running myself so pick is partly sentimental, but not totally. If running in mountains and snow counts, then watch out for Ellie Greenwood in the women's race. Runners with more experience on the course could be her weak spot, but nobody has more heart. Ellie G – Top 3, but hoping for #1.

  9. Erik A

    You know, I didn't keep track of all my picks…anyone know if they can be seen anywhere? Yeah, I forget stuff like this ALL the time…And you know what? I'll probably forget to look back here for any responses :) Too many concussions from rugby…either that or I'm a male blonde disguised as a bald man…

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