2018 Hardrock 100 Lottery Results

Hardrock 100 logoCongratulations to all of you chosen for the 2018 Hardrock Hundred Endurance Run! This article breaks down the results of today’s lottery for the run’s 2018 edition.

Let’s start with some statistics and background information. This year’s lottery entrants list was up to 2,236 applicants. For perspective, the 2017 lottery had 1,966 entrants, the 2016 lottery 1,549 entrants, and the 2015 lottery 1,367 applicants.

These 2,236 entrants were represented by 12,357 total tickets, which went into today’s lottery buckets. For perspective, last year’s total ticket pool was 8,490 tickets.

Prior to the lottery, the run administration placed all of the lottery applicants into one of three divisions based upon their previous experience (or not) with Hardrock and separate lotteries took place within each of the divisions. The divisions are Veterans, runners who’ve finished Hardrock five or more times; Nevers, who are runners who’ve never finished Hardrock; and Everyone Else (or, more simply, “Else” below), runners who’ve started the event and finished between one and four times.

For the 2018 lottery, there were 43 Veteran applicants who had 422 tickets, 1,975 Never applicants with 11,127 tickets, and 218 Else applicants with 808 tickets. Looking back at last year’s lottery, there were 43 Veteran applicants who had 404 tickets, 1,722 Never applicants with 7,339 tickets, and 201 Else applicants with 747 tickets.

The 2018 event will start 145 runners. Today, the event organization selected 33 Veterans, 45 Nevers, and 67 Elses. Of the 145 entrants chosen, up to five were chosen ahead of time by the race by Run Director Dale Garland, which were announced publicly among the names chosen in the lottery.

In addition to entrants drawn in the lottery, waitlist names were also drawn into three separate division-specific waitlists. For perspective, in 2017, 10 people got off the Veteran waitlist and into the race (which was everyone on the Veteran waitlist),9 people from the Never waitlist, and 6 people from the Else waitlist. For the 2016 edition, the waitlists eventually yielded entrant spots 4 deep in the Veteran division, 4 deep in the Never division, and 7 deep in the Else division. For the 2015 edition, the waitlist went to 9 deep for the Veterans (which included all of the Veterans on the waitlist that year), 9 deep for Never, and 12 deep for Else.

Even though this event is called a run and not a race, the front end continues to grow in competitive nature while still seeming to maintain the cooperative family spirit which Hardrock prides itself upon. Below we document the men and women who were selected in the lottery today who we think will be the main 2018 contenders. We also mention who is on a waitlist and might get in and who is on a waitlist so far down they probably won’t get in.

Let’s start with the men’s competition. Kilian Jornet won last year’s race–with a dislocated shoulder–and he’s elected to use his automatic entry. Mike Foote and Xavier Thévenard are the two runners with certain entry who are more most likely to challenge Kilian, while Pau Capell who sits second on the Never waitlist could spice up the front of the field when he almost certainly gets in.

The 2017 women’s champion, Caroline Chaverot, had the option of automatic entry, but declined to return for 2018. However, Switzerland’s Andrea Huser got in and that means trouble for everyone else in the women’s field. Kaori Niwa of Japan, who finished fourth at UTMB in 2017, is Huser’s strongest challenger. If Nikki Kimball can return to her form of old, she’ll certainly be up front, while perennial podium contender Darla Askew will again be in the mix. Big movement atop of the waitlists could greatly enhance the depth of the women’s fields with 2015 and 2016 champ Anna Frost ninth on the Else waitlist; 2013, 2014, and 2015 champ Darcy Piceu ninth on the Veteran waitlist; Bethany Lewis, who finished third in 2016, eighth on the Else waitlist; and 2017 Western States 100 third place and Hardrock newcomer Sabrina Stanley fifth on the Never waitlist.

Below is the full list of who was chosen in the lottery, and on the various waitlists.

Let’s get on with the lists of top competitors who are in, who may be, and who is definitely not. You can see the full entrants list here or look back at the lottery play-by-play on the Hardrock 100 Twitter feed.

Notable Men’s 2018 Hardrock 100 Entrants

There is only one way to gain auto entry into Hardrock, and that is by winning the prior year’s race. Kilian Jornet has chosen to use his entry to go for his fifth-straight win.

Below are the notable men who gained entrance via today’s lottery.

  • James Bonnett — 18th Hardrock 2017; 3rd Mogollon Monster 100 2016; 9th JFK 50 Mile 2015
  • Benjamin Bucklin — 4th Sean O’Brien 50 Mile 2017; 4th Cascade Crest 100 2016; 15th Western States 100 2016
  • Adam Campbell2nd Hardrock 2014; 3rd Hardrock 2015
  • John Fegyveresi — Barkley Marathons finisher
  • Mike Foote 2nd Hardrock 2017; 2nd Hardrock 2015; 3rd UTMB 2012
  • Jesse Haynes — 8th Western States 2017; 10th Western States 2014 and 2016; 1st Tahoe Rim 100 2016
  • Troy Howard — 2nd Hardrock 2009 and 2013; 5th Hardrock 2015; quietly one of the best Hardrock runners ever
  • Mick Jurynec — 1st Bear 100 2015 & 2016; 8th Hardrock 2014
  • Jayson Kolb — 1st Eastern States 100 2017; 8th Cayuga Trails 50 Mile 2017; 4th Bull Run Run 50 Mile 2015
  • Ted Mahon — 9-time Hardrock finisher including 7th in 2016 and 12th in 2017
  • Jason Poole — 8th Hardrock 2013; 9th Hardrock 2012; 4th Cruel Jewel 2016
  • Jeff Rome — 8th Hardrock 2017; 15th The Rut 50k 2014
  • Xavier Thevenard 3rd Hardrock 2016; 4th UTMB 2017; 1st UTMB 2013 and 2015
  • Brendan Trimboli — 11th Hardrock 2015; 1st Telluride Mountain Run 2016; 2nd San Juan Solstice 2014
  • Mike Wardian — 10th Leadville 100 2017; 1st Eastern States 100 2015; 4th San Diego 100 2016; 8th JFK 50 Mile 2017

Notable Women’s 2018 Hardrock 100 Entrants

Here are the women who gained entrance via today’s lottery.

  • Darla Askew2nd Hardrock 2013; 3rd Hardrock 2015; 4th at 2016 Hardrock; 6th Hardrock 2017; 1st IMTUF 100 Mile 2016
  • Katie Grossman — 9th Hardrock 2017; 4th Angeles Crest 100 2015; 4th Georgia Death Race 2016
  • Andrea Huser2nd UTMB 2016 and 2017; 1st Diagonale des Fous 2016 & 2017; 1st Madeira Island Ultra Trail 2017
  • Betsy Kalmeyer — 18 Hardrock finishes; many Hardrock wins; 2nd Hardrock 2014
  • Nikki Kimball — 3-times 1st Western States 100; 1st 2007 UTMB; 2nd HURT 100 2017; 6th Speedgoat 50k 2016
  • Kaori Niwa — 4th UTMB 2017; 8th UTMB 2016; 4th UTMF 2015
  • Betsy Nye — 6th Hardrock 2016; 9th Hardrock 2015; 11 times on Hardrock podium

Notable Waitlisted Men with at Least a Remote Chance of Getting In

Here are the front-end men’s contenders who were chosen in the top-10 slots of the Veteran waitlist, the top-15 slots of the Never waitlist, or the top-20 slots of the Everyone Else waitlist. These men have some shot of getting off their respective waitlists and into the run.

  • Jeff Browning — 7th on Else waitlist — 4th Hardrock 2016; 3rd Western States 100 2016; 4th Western States 2017; 1st Bear 100 Mile 2017
  • Pau Capell — 2nd on Never waitlist — 6th UTMB 2017; 1st Transgrancanaria 2017; 2nd Madeira Island Ultra Trail 2017
  • Benjamin Lewis — 14th on Else waitlist — 7th Hardrock 2016; 1st Scout Mountain Ultra Trail 2015; 3rd Wasatch 100 Mile 2012
  • Luke Nelson — 11th on Never waitlist — 2nd Bear 100 Mile 2014; 4th San Juan Solstice 50 Mile 2013
  • Nick Pedatella – 12th on Else waitlist — 2-time Nolan’s 14 finisher; 20th Hardrock 2017; 4th Hardrock 2012
  • Sam Ritchie — 10th on Never waitlist — 2nd IMTUF 100 Mile 2016;  8th Vermont 100 2015
  • Adam Schwartz-Lowe — 9th on Never waitlist — 3rd Superior Sawtooth 100 Mile 2017; 4th Superior 100 2016; 2nd Ozark Trail 100 2015

Notable Waitlisted Women with at Least a Remote Chance of Getting In

Here are the female contenders who were chosen in either the top-10 slots of the Veteran waitlist, the top-15 slots of the Never waitlist, or the top-20 slots of the Everyone Else waitlist. These women have some shot of running.

Notable Waitlisted Men with Pretty Much No Chance of Getting In

Here are some fast men who are so far down their respective waitlist that there is almost no chance of them getting in.

  • Jamil Coury — 28th on Else waitlist
  • Grant Guise — 58th on Else waitlist
  • Adam Hewey — 39th on Else waitlist
  • John Kelly — 21st on Never waitlist
  • John Knotts — 38th on Else waitlist
  • Steven Moore — 49th on Else waitlist
  • Matt Van Horn — 30th on Else waitlist

Notable Waitlisted Women with Pretty Much No Chance of Getting In

Here are some fast women who are so far down their respective waitlist that there is almost no chance of them getting in.

  • Becky Bates — 41st on Else waitlist
  • Kerrie Bruxvoort — 44th on Never waitlist
  • Joanna Ford — 22nd on Never waitlist
  • Hannah Green — 50th on Else waitlist
  • Meghan Hicks — 45th on Else waitlist
  • Jennifer Hughes — 34th on Never waitlist
  • Amy Sproston — 59th on Never waitlist

Call for Comments

  • Who are you most excited about running the 2018 Hardrock 100?
  • Who are your picks as favorites? Did we miss anyone who should be on these lists?
  • If you’re in, how excited are you to be racing Hardrock next year?

There are 34 comments

  1. A. Lapierre

    You neglected to note that Irunfar’s Bryon Powell was selected to once again participate in the run!

    Very exited for all those selected and encourage those who didn’t get picked to continue to dream.

  2. Xavier

    I was under the impression that Francoise D’Haene and Jim Walmsley were going to enter for 2018? So far it seems to be relatively dull for both men’s and women’s races.

            1. Bryon Powell

              Why is that hard to understand? He’s running Western States–a nut he’d still very much like to crack–and, I’d guess, UTMB… although I could be wrong on the latter.

            2. Nick

              It’s hard to understand why he wouldn’t want to start the lottery ticket count. The odds of being picked are so low for him now that he would likely not have had to give up on UTMB or WS.

            3. Myke

              Jim has been volunteering yearly and building tickets for Hardrock since 2015 but is planning to race Western/UTMB again. Also he was asked by the Hardrock board to witness and pull tickets at the Hardrock lottery this year, which he considered as an honor, but doing so disqualifies you from entering yourself into the lottery.

        1. John Vanderpot

          It’s a little off to the side, but his name is also on the AC 100 list for early next Aug.

          Maybe wants a crack at Ol’ Jim’s time?

          JV

    1. Andrew

      Just look for the elite athletes who had ~0% chance of entry who made it in (see: https://twitter.com/TimTollefson):

      Andrea Huser, 2nd UTMB, selected with 2 tickets

      Kaori Niwa, 4th UTMB, selected with 1 ticket

      Xavier, 4th UTMB, selected with 2 tickets

      Pau, 6th UTMB, selected second on waitlist with 1 ticket

        1. Andrew

          Good point, thanks Bryon. The other 3 could be still be considered suspicious though, right? We could probably get a stats person to do a hypothesis test to give us a 99% significance level that they are selected picks.

          1. Bryon Powell

            I’m not sure I’d label any “suspicious.” The race reserves the right to pick five runners, the identity of which they don’t disclose. I, for one, would love if the race were picking two prominent female trail runners from the Never grop in Andrea and Kaori to join the race.

            As for Pau, I very much doubt there’s a reason to be suspicious. First, there’s no declared mechanism for the race to make picks on the waitlist (as opposed to their explicit declaration regarding five picks). Second, take a careful look at the lengthy Nevers list and you’ll see a slew of top runners on there… some with multiple tickets (so you’ve got to up their odds) and the vast majority didn’t get in. Some top runners will eventually get in this way. Third, if the race organization was designating a top male from the Never category… there’s this guy François D’haene. Now, I think Pau’s a pretty awesome guy, but, yeah, François. ;-)

  3. Mike

    in case you are wondering about next year’s “never” lotto

    based on 2018 lotto results and next year’s odds using ultrasplits.com calculator

    2018 Tickets # People Odds 2019 Tickets # People Odds
    1 739 0.4% 1 500? 0.2%
    2 526 0.9% 2 736 0.4%
    4 284 1.7% 4 518 0.9%
    8 201 3.4% 8 279 1.9%
    16 128 6.7% 16 198 3.7%
    32 64 13.2% 32 121 7.3%
    64 27 24.4% 64 55 14.0%
    128 6 42.6% 128 21 26.1%
    256 2 45.4%

    1. Mark Y M

      To think, running next year’s HR100 qualifier….all are tough, mountainous, 100 mile races….will gain me an additional 0.2% chance of getting selected in the Never pool (4 tix to 8 tix or 1.7% to 1.9%).

      It’s less about “kissing the Rock” than it is “tilting at the Rock”….

  4. Robert

    With the exception of Andrea Huser, this looks the same field that’s ran it for the last five years. “Run” does seem more appropriate than “race”.

    1. Nick

      Yeah, that’s disappointing. Only good thing is at stome point they might succeed in making the race so dull that it’s going to be easier to get in.

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