2013 UROC 100k Group Think Predictions

For the first time at the Ultra Race of Champions (UROC) 100k, we’ve tabulated and taken a look at all the votes cast in our prediction contest. For previous races, these “group think” predictions have generally been (much) better at forecasting race outcomes than individual pickers. So, if you’re looking for a solid relative ranking of this year’s UROC 100k competitors, look no further.

How the Group Think Predictions Work
Back to the predictions. Below, we attempt to apply a hive-mentality approach to see how the men’s and women’s fields play out when the collective thoughts of over 900 participants are accumulated. In addition to showing how many picks the top runners received for each place, we ranked the runners by MVP-style voting (i.e., 5 points for first, 4 points for second, and so on). Both the men’s and women’s tables show all UROC runners who accumulated 20 or more points. Read on to see how the masses predicted the outcome for the race this weekend.

While I normally provide some analysis of the group think tallies, I kept this contest open until less than 12 hours before the start (as we weren’t able to launch the contest as early as we would have liked) and have elected to be prudent and get, perhaps, four or five hours of sleep before the race. Therefore, I look forward to hearing great analysis from you, the iRunFar readers!  – Bryon

The Just Rewards
Ultimate Direction LogoThanks again to all who participated in the contest! We hope that the three winners enjoy their Ultimate Direction vest and Endure belt. Oh, and best of luck to all the runners the weekend. Remember to follow us on Twitter to receive updates on the leaders throughout the day if you won’t already be following our live coverage on iRunFar.com.

2013 UROC 100k Men’s Field

2013 UROC 100k men's groupthink

2013 UROC 10ok Women’s Field

2013 UROC 100k women's groupthink

Call for Comments

  • So what do you all think about the group prediction?
  • What interesting observations have you made about the data?
  • How would you change your picks based on what you know now?
  • Want to make any of your predictions public? If so, leave a comment!
  • Any statisticians want to dive into this?

There are 16 comments

  1. Patrick L

    This makes me think: (a) its simply amazing that the predictions ended at 8pm just before race morning and you were still able to tabulated all the figures; and (b) for some strange reason, some folks simply don't read the race previews. Briney & Wardian should all be placed within the top 10 and the remaining 4 women outside of the top 6 should have gotten more love… especially since they'll be making it to start line.

    As always, great coverage!!

  2. Charlie Hunsberger

    Awesome work. It'll be interesting to see what all the snow does for the race today. I bet it's going to get nasty and muddy for the mid-packers!

  3. Chris Willer

    I read yesterday that Stephanie Howe wasn't running due to injury, so I changed my predictions. Now she's in first. Go Stephanie!

  4. Andrew

    I was thinking that a way you could raise some money for the site would be to charge for entry in the future for things like this. Say 1dollar a go upto maximum of 5 entries pet individual. I would have no problem paying a dollar with such great prizes on offer and it would support the great work you do.

    Just an idea.

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